Main Article Content
In this paper, polynomial models have been formulated to describe the distribution pattern of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and forward-cumulative ASFRs of Nepali mothers. The former follows the bi-quadratic polynomial and the latter follows the quadratic one. Velocity and elasticity equations of the fitted models have been formulated. The areas covered by the curves of the fitted models have been evaluated, and the area covered by the curve of ASFRs is equivalent to the total fertility rate (TFR). Furthermore, the mode of the fitted ASFRs has been estimated. To test the stability and validity of fitted models, cross validity prediction power, shrinkage of the model, F-test statistics and the coefficient of determination have been applied.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following License
CC BY: This license allows reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format, so long as attribution is given to the creator. The license allows for commercial use.
- Asili, S., Rezaei, S. & Najjar, L. (2014). Using skew-logistic probability density function as a model for age-specific fertility rate pattern. BioMed research international. 10, 1-5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/790294
- Azzalini, A. (1985). A class of distributions which includes the normal ones. Scandinavian journal of statistics. 171-178.
- Azzalini, A. (2005). The skew‐normal distribution and related multivariate families. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics. 32(2), 159-188. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9469.2005.00426.x
- Beer, J.D. (2011). A new relational method for smoothing and projecting age-specific fertility rates: TOPALS. Demographic Research. 24, 409-454. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2011.24.18
- Chandola, T., Coleman, D.A. & Hiorns, R.W. (1999). Recent European fertility patterns: Fitting curves to distorted distributions. Population Studies. 53(3), 317-329. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324720308089
- Dewett, K.K. (2015). Modern Economic Theory. S. Chand and Company Ltd. (22nd revised edition) New Delhi, India.
- DHS, M. (2011). Population Division Ministry of Health and Population, Ramshah Path, Kathmandu Nepal.
- Gaire, A.K. & Aryal, R. (2015). Inverse Gaussian model to describe the distribution of age-specific fertility rates of Nepal. Journal of Institute of Science and Technology. 20(2), 80-83. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3126/jist.v20i2.13954
- Gaire, A.K., Thapa G.B. & KC, S. (2019). Preliminary results of Skew Log-logistic distribution, properties and application. Proceeding of the 2nd International Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Post Disaster Reconstruction Planning (ICEE-PDRP-2019), 25–27 April, 2019, Bhaktapur, Nepal, 37-43.
- Gasser, T., Köhler, W., Müller, H.G., Kneip, A., Largo, R., Molinari, L. & Prader, A. (1984). Velocity and acceleration of height growth using kernel estimation. Annals of Human Biology. 11(5), 397-411. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/03014468400007311
- Gayawan, E., Adebayo, S.B., Ipinyomi, R.A. & Oyejola, B.A. (2010). Modeling fertility curves in Africa. Demographic Research, 22, 211-236. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.10
- Gilje, E. (1969). Fitting curves to age-specific fertility rates: Some examples. Statistical Review of the Swedish National Central Bureau of Statistics. 3(7), 118-134.
- Gujarati, D.N. (2009). Basic Econometrics. Tata McGraw-Hill Education, India.
- Hoem, J.M., Madien, D., Nielsen, J.L., Ohlsen, E.M., Hansen, H.O. & Rennermalm, B. (1981). Experiments in modeling recent Danish fertility curves. Demography. 18(2), 231-244. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2061095
- Islam, M.R. & Ali, M.K. (2004). Mathematical modeling of age-specific fertility rates and study of the productivity in the rural area of Bangladesh during 1980-1998. Pakistan Journal of Statistics. 20(3), 379-392.
- Islam, R. (2011). Modeling of age-specific fertility rates of Jakarta in Indonesia: A polynomial model approach. International Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research. 2(11), 1-5.
- Kostaki, A., Moguerza, J.M., Olivares, A. & Psarakis, S. (2009). Graduating the age-specific fertility pattern using Support Vector Machines. Demographic Research. 20, 599-622. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2009.20.25
- Luther, N. Y. (1984). Fitting age-specific fertility with the Makeham curve. In Asian and Pacific census forum 10(3), 5.
- Mazzuco, S. & Scarpa, B. (2011). Fitting age-specific fertility rates by a skew-symmetric probability density function. The University of Padova, Working paper Series Itely. 10.
- Ministry of Health, Nepal; New ERA & ICF (2017). Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2016: Key Indicators. Kathmandu, Nepal: Ministry of Health, Nepal. https://www.newera.com.np/NDHS-2016%20Key%20Indicators.pdf.
- Mishra, R., Singh, K.K. & Singh, A. (2017). A model for age-specific fertility rate pattern of India using skew-logistic distribution function. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics. 6(1), 32-37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20170601.14
- Peristera, P. & Kostaki, A. (2007). Modeling fertility in modern populations. Demographic Research. 16, 141-194. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2007.16.6
- RStudio, R.T. (2015). Integrated Development for R. RStudio, Inc., Boston, MA.
- Schmertmann, C.P. (2003). A system of model fertility schedules with graphically intuitive parameters. Demographic Research. 9, 81-110. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2003.9.5
- Singh, B.P., Gupta, K. and Singh, K. K. (2015). Analysis of fertility pattern through mathematical curves. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 4(2), 64-70. DOI: https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20150402.14
- Spiegel, M.R. (1992). Theory and Problems of Statistics (Second Edition in SI unit). McGraw-Hill Book company, Schaum's Outline Series, London, UK.
- Stevens, J. (1996). Applied Multivariate Statistics for the Social Sciences (3rd edition), New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Inc. Publishers.