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Abstract

In regression analysis, autocorrelation of the error terms violates the ordinary least squares assumption that the error terms are uncorrelated. The consequence is that the estimates of coefficients and their standard errors will be wrong if the autocorrelation is ignored. There are many tests for autocorrelation, we want to know which test is more powerful. We use Monte Carlo methods to compare the power of five most commonly used tests for autocorrlation, namely Durbin-Watson, Breusch-Godfrey, Box–Pierce, Ljung Box, and Runs tests in two different linear regression models. The results indicate the Durbin-Watson test performs better in the regression model without lagged dependent variable, although the advantage over the other tests reduce with increasing autocorrelation and sample sizes. For the model with lagged dependent variable, the Breusch-Godfrey test is generally superior to the other tests.
R code for Power Comparison of the Five Autocorrelation Tests is provided.

Keywords

Correlated error terms Ordinary least squares assumption Residuals Regression diagnostic Lagged dependent variable

Article Details

How to Cite
Uyanto, S. S. (2020). Power Comparisons of Five Most Commonly Used Autocorrelation Tests. Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research, 16(1), 119-130. https://doi.org/10.18187/pjsor.v16i1.2691