PREDICTION OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF HOUSEHOLDS FOOD SECURITY IN THE LAKE VICTORIA REGION OF KENYA

Abstract

This paper considers the modeling and prediction of  households food security status using a sample of households in the  Lake Victoria region of Kenya. A priori expected food security  factors and their measurements are given. A binary logistic regression model  derived was fitted to thirteen priori expected factors. Analysis of the marginal effects revealed that effecting the use of the seven significant determinants: farmland size, per capita aggregate production, household size, gender of household head, use of fertilizer, use of pesticide/herbicide and education of household head,  increase the likelihood of a household being food secure. Finally, interpretations  of   predicted conditional probabilities, following improvement of significant determinants,  are given.