AGE OF BIRDS AT OPTIMAL PRODUCTION OF EGGS: A POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Chigozie Kelechi Acha, Eleazar C. Nwogu

Abstract


This paper discusses the age of birds at optimal production of eggs. The objective is to determine the age at which birds are at their best in terms of production of eggs which may be relevant in improving the output of poultry farmers in egg production. To achieve this objective, secondary data on egg production (in grams per day) by age of birds (in weeks, from 18 to 87 weeks) between 2008 and 2010 were collected from poultry farm of the National Root Crop Research Institute (NRCRI), Umudike. Polynomial regression was fitted to determine the appropriate model for age-pattern of egg production among birds aged 18 to 87 weeks. Result of the analysis show that polynomial of order 3 describes the pattern in the egg production data well, but not adequately. The result also shows that the residuals from the fitted polynomial follow the pattern autoregressive process of order 1. Using the fitted model, it was observed that the age of birds at maximum production of eggs is about 44.36weeks. The egg production corresponding to this age is about 12.14 grams per day. The birds were also found to be at their best, (in terms of egg production) when they are aged between 34.5 weeks and 54.5 weeks, with egg production of at least 11.07 grams per day. Hence, for optimal production of eggs, it is recommended that birds are not kept far beyond 54.5 weeks. 


Keywords


Egg production, Polynomial Regression, birds, Cubic model, Poultry product

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18187/pjsor.v10i2.469

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Title

AGE OF BIRDS AT OPTIMAL PRODUCTION OF EGGS: A POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Keywords

Egg production, Polynomial Regression, birds, Cubic model, Poultry product

Description

This paper discusses the age of birds at optimal production of eggs. The objective is to determine the age at which birds are at their best in terms of production of eggs which may be relevant in improving the output of poultry farmers in egg production. To achieve this objective, secondary data on egg production (in grams per day) by age of birds (in weeks, from 18 to 87 weeks) between 2008 and 2010 were collected from poultry farm of the National Root Crop Research Institute (NRCRI), Umudike. Polynomial regression was fitted to determine the appropriate model for age-pattern of egg production among birds aged 18 to 87 weeks. Result of the analysis show that polynomial of order 3 describes the pattern in the egg production data well, but not adequately. The result also shows that the residuals from the fitted polynomial follow the pattern autoregressive process of order 1. Using the fitted model, it was observed that the age of birds at maximum production of eggs is about 44.36weeks. The egg production corresponding to this age is about 12.14 grams per day. The birds were also found to be at their best, (in terms of egg production) when they are aged between 34.5 weeks and 54.5 weeks, with egg production of at least 11.07 grams per day. Hence, for optimal production of eggs, it is recommended that birds are not kept far beyond 54.5 weeks. 


Date

2014-08-12

Identifier


Source

Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research; Vol. 10 No. 2, 2014



Print ISSN: 1816-2711 | Electronic ISSN: 2220-5810